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Monday, January 21, 2013

Tropical Cyclone 'Garry' in the neighborhood

January 21, 2013 1:20AM local (1220UTC)
Position: 10°06' S 165°07' W
Speed 7.5 knots
Course 045T
Wind NE 9 knots
Motor sailing (1 X engine to conserve fuel)
Fuel burn rate: 3L/hr... 110L remaining or (36 hrs X 1 engine or 18 hrs X 2 engines).
Reserve fuel not included in above calculations: 80L (12 hrs X 2 engines)

It's official Tropical Cyclone 'Garry' is in the neighborhood.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A07 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 21/0756 UTC 2013 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GARRY CENTRE 995HPA CAT 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2S
172.5W AT 210600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35
KNOTS.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 6 HOURS. PRIMARY BAND
TRYING TO WRAP AROUND LLCC. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT
REGION AND IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF SYSTEM BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SST AROUND 29
DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL,
GIVING DT=3.0. MET=3.0 AND PT=3.0. FT BASED ON DT, THUS YIELDING
T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EASTWARDS WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 211800 UTC 11.3S 171.3W MOV E AT 06 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

NB ( AT 211800 LightSpeed will be at 09.68S 164.66W moving NE at 6 knots)

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 220600 UTC 11.4S 170.5W MOV E AT 05 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 221800 UTC 11.5S 170.0W MOV E AT 04 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 230600 UTC 11.6S 169.5W MOV E AT 03 KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE GARRY WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 211400 UTC.

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